Dust Risk-Based Forecast | Pinal County

Friday

Stagnation: No stagnation

Wind: Light becoming west-southwest 5-10 mph, afternoon outflows possible

Saturday

Stagnation: Light stagnation

Wind: Light becoming west 5-10 mph, afternoon outflows possible

Sunday

Stagnation: Light stagnation

Wind: Light becoming west 5-12 mph

Monday

Stagnation: Light stagnation

Wind: Light becoming west 5-12 mph

Tuesday

Stagnation: Moderate stagnation

Wind: Light becoming west 5-15 mph

Forecast Discussion:

There has been a noticeable uptick in atmospheric moisture this morning with dew point temperatures in the low to mid 60s. The influx of humidity along with an upper air disturbance that's expected to skirt by to our south will help kick off storms this afternoon and perhaps bring some outflow generated blowing dust. There's another chance for more outflow generated blowing dust on Friday and Saturday. The forecasted PM10 levels are in the upper good to mid-moderate AQI category each of the next three days (i.e. moderate dust risks Friday and Saturday). High pressure will expand from the Pacific over to our area later in the weekend and early next week. The drop in temperatures caused by the weakening high pressure and influx of atmospheric moisture will be short lived as the afternoon highs will rebound for early next week and once again approach the 110 degree mark. Lower PM10 levels are forecast on Sunday along with not so favorable (for early morning PM10 spikes) conditions at Hidden Valley early next week bring low dust risk forecasts for Sunday and Monday. Stronger temperature inversion and stagnation on Tuesday brings better chances for PM10 spikes at Hidden Valley, thus a moderate dust risk forecast.

- S.DiBiase
Pinal County Air Quality Meteorologist