Dust Risk-Based Forecast | Maricopa County

Friday

Stagnation: No stagnation

Wind: Northeast/East winds 10-15mph

Saturday

Stagnation: No stagnation

Wind: Easterly winds 15-25mph

Sunday

Stagnation: No stagnation

Wind: Easterly winds 15-25mph

Monday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation

Wind: Easterly winds 5-15mph

Tuesday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation

Wind: North winds 5-15mph

Forecast Discussion:

The good air quality trend continues across the state with every monitor coming in with an AQI in the Good category! The incredible weather also continues with a high of 77 degrees yesterday in Phoenix. The slightly bad news, afternoon high temperatures will be on the rise with the 90's potentially coming back into the forecast this weekend.

The area of low pressure that brought rain and snow to the state on Tuesday is shifting to the northeast this morning as another area of low pressure develops off the coast of southern California, with a high directly above it off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The low off the coast will influence our weather this weekend as some moisture is pulled up from the south into the state.

As the dynamics from the low and moisture interact, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Not expecting widespread rain at this point but certainly watching the potential from strong thunderstorms to develop Saturday evening through Sunday. Will be watching trends closely.

Winds will also be on the rise this weekend with easterly winds in the 15-25mph range which could result in a slight increase in PM-10 (dust). Right now, am keeping the forecast in the Good AQI category due to the expected rain but may need to adjust this higher.

As can be seen, the active October weather pattern continues!

- M. Pace
ADEQ Meteorologist