Dust Risk-Based Forecast | Maricopa County

Updated On: 10/19/18 - 8:05 AM

Saturday

Stagnation: No stagnation

Wind: Easterly winds 15-25mph with higher gusts possible

Sunday

Stagnation: No stagnation

Wind: Easterly winds 15-25mph with higher gusts possible

Monday

Stagnation: No stagnation

Wind: Easterly winds 10-15mph

Tuesday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation

Wind: North winds 5-15mph

Wednesday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation

Wind: North winds 5-15mph

Forecast Discussion:

Have you been enjoying the well below average weather lately? Unfortunately, after 18 days of below average high temperatures in Phoenix, a warming trend will bring that to an end later this afternoon with high temperatures forecast to be right at the average of 87 degrees. Tomorrow (Saturday), expecting even warmer conditions with high temperatures rising into the low 90's. The good news, air quality is forecast to remain in the Good AQI category through the weekend.

Water vapor satellite tells the story this morning for what is happening in the atmosphere. An area of low is developing off the coast of Southern California as a large area of high pressure moves over the Pacific Northwest. As high pressure slides eastward, it will allow the low to begin moving northeast this weekend into the first part of next week. This pattern will also result in an increase in moisture from the south which will help to bring a chance of rain to the Valley of the Sun late Saturday through the day on Sunday. Not expecting widespread coverage with only isolated storms currently in the forecast; however, storms that do form will be capable of producing heavy rain and strong gusty winds.

The other thing to note for this weekend is breezy easterly winds likely Saturday through Sunday. Currently forecasting easterly winds of 15-25mph both days with some higher gusts possible. The strongest winds are predicted to be Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. While this would typically be a dust concern given the longevity of the wind event, with all the recent rain, not expecting much dust to be produced. With that said, use caution traveling as localized areas of blowing dust will be possible.

By next week, expecting winds to calm and skies to clear with temperatures sitting in the mid-80's which is right around average for this time of year.

Have a great weekend!

- M. Pace
ADEQ Meteorologist