Phoenix Forecast

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Air Quality Hourly Forecast | Phoenix

Click on each day to view forecast.

Monday Forecast:

Alert: Ozone High Pollution Advisory in effect for Monday

Ozone

105 AQI
Max 8-hr Avg: 72 ppb

PM10

44 AQI
24-hr Avg: 47 µg/m3

PM2.5

30 AQI
24-hr Avg: 7.2 µg/m3

Tuesday Forecast:

Alert: Ozone High Pollution Advisory in effect for Tuesday

Ozone

115 AQI
Max 8-hr Avg: 75 ppb

PM10

51 AQI
24-hr Avg: 56 µg/m3

PM2.5

31 AQI
24-hr Avg: 7.5 µg/m3

Wednesday Forecast:

Alert: Ozone High Pollution Advisory possible on Wednesday

Ozone

112 AQI
Max 8-hr Avg: 74 ppb

PM10

52 AQI
24-hr Avg: 58 µg/m3

PM2.5

31 AQI
24-hr Avg: 7.5 µg/m3

Thursday Forecast:

Alert: Ozone High Pollution Advisory possible on Thursday

Ozone

108 AQI
Max 8-hr Avg: 73 ppb

PM10

51 AQI
24-hr Avg: 55 µg/m3

PM2.5

30 AQI
24-hr Avg: 7.3 µg/m3

Friday Forecast:

Alert: Ozone High Pollution Advisory possible on Friday

Ozone

105 AQI
Max 8-hr Avg: 72 ppb

PM10

52 AQI
24-hr Avg: 57 µg/m3

PM2.5

29 AQI
24-hr Avg: 6.9 µg/m3

Air Quality By Pollutant:

Pollutant
Monday
8/19/2019
Tuesday
8/20/2019
Wednesday
8/21/2019
Thursday
8/22/2019
Friday
8/23/2019
O3
105
115
112
108
105
PM10
44
51
52
51
52
PM2.5
30
31
31
30
29
Pollutant
MON
TUE
WED
THU
FRI
O3
105
115
112
108
105
PM10
44
51
52
51
52
PM2.5
30
31
31
30
29
O3 = Ozone, PM10 = Particles ≤ 10 microns, PM2.5 = Particles ≤ 2.5 microns

Forecast Discussion:

Of late, the weather pattern over the western tier of the U.S. could be characterized by a monsoon circulation attempting to expand in coverage at times, only to be disrupted by periodic dips in the storm track. These “dips”, or low pressure troughs, over the West Coast or Great Basin region during this time in the summer months are notorious for sweeping away any built up monsoonal moisture in our state, at least for the western two-thirds of Arizona. The usual result for Phoenix are dry conditions and only a few afternoon breezes to break up the heat.

This low pressure trough versus high pressure ridge (aka the “monsoon circulation”) struggle will continue their competition for spatial dominance in our vicinity through the week. Over Arizona, the edge is now leaning in favor for high pressure influence starting today, wavering once again by Thursday. The main result is an eastern horizon becoming dotted with a few afternoon storms in the distance.

Locally here in the Valley of the Sun, it is the winds, or lack thereof, that are the focus for our upcoming air quality. Morning Phoenix weather balloon sounding shows dry southwesterly flow above the morning inversion layer, while winds are fairly weak below 10,000 feet (less than 10 mph). Although surface winds during the afternoon should find their way to quicker speeds at times as the mountain-valley circulation ramps up, the environment still likely supports maximum 8-hour ozone average readings over the 70 parts per billion EPA standard, primarily out in the East Valley due to the typical eastward progression of the daily ozone plume. The previously issued Ozone High Pollution Advisory remains in effect today and will be extended through tomorrow (Tuesday, August 20th). Really, the HPA may very well be extended again past midweek, so stay up-to-date with the latest forecast!

There are no blowing dust concerns in the short-term, however, we will need to take note that soils have had the opportunity to dry out. Should monsoon activity revisit the lower deserts in the near-future, dust storms could again spring to life.


- J. Malloy
ADEQ Meteorologist


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