Dust Risk-Based Forecast | Maricopa County

Saturday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Southwesterly winds 5-15 mph

Sunday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation

Wind: Northerly winds 5-20 mph, becoming light during the afternoon

Monday

Stagnation: Stagnation during the afternoon and evening

Wind: Northerly winds 5-15 mph, becoming light during the afternoon

Tuesday

Stagnation: Stagnation possible through the day

Wind: Mainly light winds

Wednesday

Stagnation: Stagnation possible through the day

Wind: Mainly light winds

Forecast Discussion:

Thursday's low pressure trough can still be seen making its way over Arizona. That system should be out the door, so to speak, and into the southern Great Plains by the weekend. Air quality fared well as winds got kicked up yesterday afternoon.

The Salt River drainage did observe higher particulate readings as captured by the West 43rd PM10 monitor. That was the lone monitoring site that reached the Moderate AQI category for any of the major pollutants. The rest of the Valley was good across the board. Unsettled weather in terms of breeziness continues today. More apparent will be the undercut of peak temperatures by about 10 degrees (Thursday's official high temperature at Sky Harbor was 96 degrees).

Great air quality is the rule now and for the weekend. This changes a bit to start next week. Light dispersion could start to have a negative effect on Phoenix area air quality. The storm track is projected to retreat north and east away from Arizona as a flat and weak high pressure ridge begins to occupy the southwest corner of the Lower 48. This is something to keep in mind as local dust and burning activities can accumulate to gradually deteriorate air quality should we not have a means to clear the Valley airshed out. Low risk for now. Stay tuned.

Have an outstanding weekend and enjoy the outdoors if you get a chance to do so!


- J. Malloy
ADEQ Meteorologist