[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Tue Nov 22 12:12:33 MST 2011

Health message for Tuesday November 22: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Health message for Wednesday November 23: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion
PARTICLES: In the wake of Monday's upper level trough passage a warm
ridge aloft will build over AZ from the west today and Wednesday.
Significant warming aloft (14+ deg F at the 5K' level) by Wednesday
morning, along with overnight inversion formation, will result in strong
stagnation of the air mass.  However, breezy easterly winds Wednesday
morning should help to counteract some of the adverse impacts.  In
addition, a potentially much wetter Pacific weather system is poised to
affect the Valley on Thanksgiving Day.  Due to these factors and recent
rainfall events, very low coarse particle (PM-10) pollution levels in
the Phoenix metro area will continue for the foreseeable future.  For
today and Wednesday if substantial pre-holiday smoke emissions due to
wood-burning fireplace use occurs, then fine particle (PM-2.5) levels
may reach the low-moderate range of the Air Quality Index before
dropping again on Thursday. 
OZONE:  Although Valley ozone precursor (NOx & VOC) emissions tend to
remain fairly constant all year, by October those factors conducive to
efficient ozone production - such as sun angle, day length, and
excessive heat - have all become less.  Thus, local ozone levels are
typically not much of an air quality problem again until late March.  

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Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215

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