[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast - Wednesday, November 02, 2011

Tue Nov 1 11:37:13 MST 2011

Health message for Tuesday, November 1: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.

Health message for Wednesday, November 2: Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.

Synopsis and Discussion
A moderately strong trough of low pressure will be passing through the region Tuesday and Wednesday.  Wednesday's winds in Phoenix will be out of the north where gusts could reach 25-30 mph at times.  Another much larger system will bring similar wind speeds out of the southwest on Friday.  Cooler air will drop temperatures to near normal Wednesday (77°F) and below normal by Saturday (66°F).  Though winds out of the north and northwest don't typically bring in much dust, we have many recently tilled ag fields with unstable topsoil.  The wind will likely produce pockets of blowing dust around the Valley, pushing PM10 levels into the mid to upper Moderate range.  The westerly winds expected with Friday's system, on the other hand, could transport dust from outside the forecast area, again threatening the PM10 health standard.  

The cold air associated with each system combined with stronger overnight inversions and increased residential fireplace activity will likely push PM2.5 levels into the Moderate range Thursday between the systems and especially Saturday and Sunday.  

Check back tomorrow for the latest.  Until then, have a good day!  -J.Paul

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If you have any questions or comments regarding this forecast please contact:

Arizona Department of Environmental Quality
Office of Communications
1110 W. Washington St., Phoenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-2215

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