[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, OCTOBER 07, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Monday, October 06: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Health message for Tuesday, October 07: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion
In the wake of the past weekend's trough passage, a strong ridge aloft
has already begun to build overhead from the west.  Unfortunately, this
situation will likely have some adverse near-term impacts on local air
quality.  Sunny skies with afternoon temperatures near 100 degrees F by
Wednesday, along with light or easterly surface winds, will contribute
to higher ozone levels.  Particle pollutant levels are also expected to
rise as an increasingly stagnant air mass traps fugitive dust emissions
(PM-10) and by-products of combustion (PM-2.5) over the local forecast
area. Warming aloft on the order of 10-15 deg F in the 5-10K' layer is
advertised to occur by Wednesday afternoon, and this morning's local
ACARS sounding has revealed that the best mixing depth today will be no
higher than 8600' and that dispersion will be only be in the FAIR
category.  In addition, easterly morning breezes the next few mornings
will tend to increase the accumulation of pollutant particles over the
west Valley and adjacent to the Salt River Channel - areas that already
tend to have the highest PM-10 & PM-2.5 levels.  -Reith   

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