[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast for Thurs., Feb. 22

Wed Feb 21 13:11:24 MST 2007

For more information, or if you have problems viewing the images, please
visit our Web page:

http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

VERY UNHEALTHY  (201-300)

UNHEALTHY (151-200)

UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS (101-150)

MODERATE (51-100)

GOOD (0-50)

For more information visit:

http://www.epa.gov/airnow/aqibroch

*LINK TO EXCEEDANCE & HEALTH STATEMENT INFO FOR THE 2005-06 & 2006-07
FORECAST SEASONS* <http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/pmstats.pdf> 

AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 22, 2007

This report is updated by 1:00 p.m. Sunday thru Friday and is valid

for areas within and bordering Maricopa County in Arizona

FORECAST

DATE

NOTICES

(*SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS) 

AIR POLLUTANT

YESTERDAY

TUE 02/20/2007

NONE    

Highest AQI Reading/Site

(Preliminary data only)

TODAY

WED 02/21/2007

NONE 

TOMORROW

THU 02/22/2007

NONE 

EXTENDED

FRI 02/23/2007

NONE

O3*

32

APACHE JUNCTION, FOUNTAIN HILLS, & NORTH PHOENIX

34

GOOD

36

GOOD

31

GOOD

CO*

26

WEST INDIAN SCHOOL

36

GOOD

35

GOOD

20

GOOD

PM-10*

27

GREENWOOD

41

GOOD

49

GOOD

74

MODERATE

PM-2.5*

53

PHOENIX SUPERSITE

74

MODERATE

74

MODERATE

52

MODERATE

* O3 = Ozone      CO = Carbon Monoxide      PM-10 = Particles 10 microns
& smaller      PM-2.5 = Particles smaller than 2.5 microns

*"Ozone Health Watch" means that the highest concentration of OZONE may
approach the federal health standard.

"PM-10 or PM-2.5 Health Watch" means that the highest concentration of
PM-10 or PM-2.5 may approach the federal health standard.

"High Pollution Advisory" means that the highest concentration of OZONE,
PM-10, or PM-2.5 may exceed the federal health standard.

"DUST" means that short periods of high PM-10 concentrations caused by
outflow from thunderstorms are possible.

Health message for Wednesday, Feb 21: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Health message for Thursday, Feb 22: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion

Mid-morning ACARS sounding data indicates that the best mixing depth
today will near 4700' and that dispersion will be MARGINAL with a light
easterly transport wind speed.  It also reveals the presence of a strong
subsidence inversion with a base near 4800' and that extends to around
5900'.  With another 12-13 degrees F of warming on tap at the 5K' level
in the next 24-36 hours, the air mass over the local forecast area will
undoubtedly become more stagnant with a pronounced Valley Brown Cloud of
trapped particle pollutants likely at times over the metro area thru
Thursday morning.  Fortunately, the current weather situation will come
to an abrupt halt on Friday with the arrival of a vigorous and
potentially wet upper level trough and surface cold front in the
mid-latitude storm track.  Since locally significant rainfall is
currently not forecast to occur with this system, there is the potential
for areas of blowing as well as transported dust from desert areas west
of the valley due to projected strong and gusty winds. -Reith    

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