[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast for Wed., Feb. 21

Tue Feb 20 13:35:41 MST 2007

For more information, or if you have problems viewing the images, please
visit our Web page:

http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

VERY UNHEALTHY  (201-300)

UNHEALTHY (151-200)

UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS (101-150)

MODERATE (51-100)

GOOD (0-50)

For more information visit:

http://www.epa.gov/airnow/aqibroch

*LINK TO EXCEEDANCE & HEALTH STATEMENT INFO FOR THE 2005-06 & 2006-07
FORECAST SEASONS* <http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/pmstats.pdf> 

AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 2007

This report is updated by 1:00 p.m. Sunday thru Friday and is valid

for areas within and bordering Maricopa County in Arizona

FORECAST

DATE

NOTICES

(*SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS) 

AIR POLLUTANT

YESTERDAY

MON 02/19/2007

NONE    

Highest AQI Reading/Site

(Preliminary data only)

TODAY

TUE 02/20/2007

NONE 

TOMORROW

WED 02/21/2007

NONE 

EXTENDED

THU 02/22/2007

NONE

O3*

32

PINNACLE PEAK

40

GOOD

34

GOOD

36

GOOD

CO*

26

WEST INDIAN SCHOOL

34

GOOD

36

GOOD

35

GOOD

PM-10*

31

WEST FORTY THIRD

67

MODERATE

41

GOOD

49

GOOD

PM-2.5*

41

PHOENIX SUPERSITE

64

MODERATE

74

MODERATE

67

MODERATE

* O3 = Ozone      CO = Carbon Monoxide      PM-10 = Particles 10 microns
& smaller      PM-2.5 = Particles smaller than 2.5 microns

*"Ozone Health Watch" means that the highest concentration of OZONE may
approach the federal health standard.

"PM-10 or PM-2.5 Health Watch" means that the highest concentration of
PM-10 or PM-2.5 may approach the federal health standard.

"High Pollution Advisory" means that the highest concentration of OZONE,
PM-10, or PM-2.5 may exceed the federal health standard.

"DUST" means that short periods of high PM-10 concentrations caused by
outflow from thunderstorms are possible.

Health message for Tuesday, Feb 20: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Health message for Wednesday, Feb 21: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion

Mid-morning ACARS sounding data indicates that today's initial best
mixing depth of about 8200' will likely be on the decrease due to
warming aloft.  A light transport wind speed means that FAIR dispersion
may drop into the MARGINAL category this afternoon.  In the wake of
Monday's trough and frontal passage a warm ridge has begun to build
overhead from the west.  Temperatures in the 5-10K' layer are predicted
to increase by 15-20 deg F by Thursday morning while winds aloft and at
the surface will be relatively light.  This means that the local air
mass will become increasingly stagnant the next two mornings; however,
due to local rainfall totals in the 1/4-1/3" range, coarse particle
levels will be held far below their potential.  In the meantime, fine
particle concentrations should exhibit a significant rise - contributed
to by lingering elevated humidity levels.  Another even stronger
mid-latitude storm is forecast to impact the local forecast area late
Thursday and Friday.  -Reith    

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