[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast for Tues., Feb. 6

Mon Feb 5 12:40:36 MST 2007

VERY UNHEALTHY  (201-300)

UNHEALTHY (151-200)

UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS (101-150)

MODERATE (51-100)

GOOD (0-50)

For more information visit:

http://www.epa.gov/airnow/aqibroch

*LINK TO EXCEEDANCE & HEALTH STATEMENT INFO FOR THE 2005-06 & 2006-07
FORECAST SEASONS* <http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/pmstats.pdf> 

AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 06, 2007

This report is updated by 1:00 p.m. Sunday thru Friday and is valid

for areas within and bordering Maricopa County in Arizona

FORECAST

DATE

NOTICES

(*SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS) 

AIR POLLUTANT

YESTERDAY

SUN 02/04/2007

NONE   

Highest AQI Reading/Site

(Preliminary data only)

TODAY

MON 02/05/2007

PM-2.5 HEALTH 

  WATCH

TOMORROW

TUE 02/06/2007

PM-2.5 HEALTH

WATCH

EXTENSION

EXTENDED

WED 02/07/2007

PM-2.5 HIGH POLLUTION ADVISORY   

POSSIBLE 

O3*

34

PINNACLE PEAK

35

GOOD

38

GOOD

33

GOOD

CO*

39

WEST INDIAN SCHOOL &

 WEST PHOENIX

30

GOOD

38

GOOD

42

GOOD

PM-10*

40

GREENWOOD

59

MODERATE

74

MODERATE

81

MODERATE

PM-2.5*

80

PHOENIX SUPERSITE

90

MODERATE

93

MODERATE

102

UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS

* O3 = Ozone      CO = Carbon Monoxide      PM-10 = Particles 10 microns
& smaller      PM-2.5 = Particles smaller than 2.5 microns

*"Ozone Health Watch" means that the highest concentration of OZONE may
approach the federal health standard.

"PM-10 or PM-2.5 Health Watch" means that the highest concentration of
PM-10 or PM-2.5 may approach the federal health standard.

"High Pollution Advisory" means that the highest concentration of OZONE,
PM-10, or PM-2.5 may exceed the federal health standard.

"DUST" means that short periods of high PM-10 concentrations caused by
outflow from thunderstorms are possible.

Health message for Monday, Feb 05: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Health message for Tuesday, Feb 06: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion

TODAY'S PM-2.5 HEALTH WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU TUESDAY FEBRUARY 06

Monday morning ACARS sounding data indicates that the best mixing depth
today will be near 4000' and that a strong (9-10 deg C) surface based
radiation inversion formed overnight; dispersion today will be MARGINAL.
A very strong ridge aloft has moved over the western U.S. and its axis
is forecast to be directly over the local forecast area on Tuesday.  On
Wednesday the ridge will weaken a bit as a minor trough translates
eastward thru it.  This trough passage will likely be accompanied by a
considerable amount of mid and high level cloudiness but have little
positive impact on the stagnant air mass currently over the metro area.
Since maximum PM-2.5 concentrations were elevated to high on Saturday
and Sunday-and have climbed much higher this morning at some sites than
24 hours ago-the PM-2.5 Health Watch has been extended thru Tuesday.  By
reducing solar gain, the cloud cover due on Wednesday may lower the
convective mixing potential and have an adverse effect on air quality;
therefore, a High Pollution Advisory may be needed for Wednesday.
-Reith     

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