Dust Risk-Based Forecast | Pinal County

Saturday

Stagnation: Light stagnation

Wind: Light becoming west to west-northwest 5-12 mph, slight chance for evening outflows

Sunday

Stagnation: Light stagnation

Wind: Light becoming west to west-northwest 4-9 mph slight chance for evening outflows

Monday

Stagnation: Light stagnation

Wind: Light becoming west 5-15 mph slight chance for evening outflows

Tuesday

Stagnation: Light stagnation

Wind: Light becoming west 5-15 mph

Wednesday

Stagnation: Light stagnation

Wind: Light becoming west 5-12 mph

Forecast Discussion:

July in central Arizona typically is one of the hottest places on planet earth and this weekend will not be any different. High pressure will bring the hottest temperatures of 2020 to the area as afternoon highs approach and perhaps in a few locations on Sunday surpass 115 degrees! There is a wildcard however as the high pressure meanders a bit over the weekend and the for the upper wind flow to fluctuate enough to usher in some atmospheric moisture from Mexico into southern Arizona. Some of the early morning forecasting model runs at the University of Arizona are showing cell development in southern and southeastern Arizona and associated outflows over the weekend and early next week. The chances that any storm development over southern and southeastern Arizona makes it up to our area are very small. However outflow winds and associated dust making its way into the County are possible and so have added the mention of dust to this weekend's forecast. Early next week a trough will pass by well to our north and help nudge the dome of high pressure eastward which will help knock the temperatures down a bit. Later next week looks to be the time where chances will increase for local storm development, stay tuned! The air quality forecast over the weekend and early next week will be in the good to mid-moderate range on the AQI scale for particulates with Stanfield forecasted with the highest levels. The overall forecasted daily average PM10 levels are in the low dust risk range and so have low dust risks through next Wednesday. However as is the case during the Monsoon, the forecast can change dramatically from day to day (even hour to hour), so check back on Monday for an updated dust risk forecast.

- S.DiBiase
Pinal County Air Quality Meteorologist