Dust Risk-Based Forecast | Maricopa County

Saturday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation

Wind: West winds 10-15mph

Sunday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation

Wind: West winds 5-10mph

Monday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation

Wind: Southwest winds 5-10mph

Tuesday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation

Wind: South winds 5-10mph; strong gusty winds possible from outflows in the afternoon

Wednesday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation

Wind: South winds 5-10mph; strong gusty winds possible from outflows in the afternoon

Forecast Discussion:

Did you feel the wave of moisture come crashing through the door when you opened it this morning? Dew points across the Valley are in the upper 60's to low 70's and the moisture content measured by the weather balloon launched in Phoenix this morning was at record levels for the second day in a row. So we should for sure get storms right? Sadly, no... Winds today from the surface up through the atmosphere will be light and out of the west-southwest which will keep almost all storms confined to the higher terrain just north and east of the Phoenix valley. With that said there is still a slight chance of storms in the Valley later this afternoon, but they will be isolated in nature. Any storms that do form around the state today will be capable of producing very heavy rain.

The monsoon ridge that is centered over New Mexico will begin shifting westward today and be centered over the Arizona/California border this weekend. This will result in a much drier westerly flow across the region resulting in monsoon thunderstorm activity taking a break for a few days. By Tuesday into the middle of the week, high pressure will move back over the Four Corners opening the door for moisture and storm chances to move back into the forecast.

Dust (PM-10) is not forecast to be an issue through the weekend, but with storm chances returning to the Valley by Tuesday afternoon, we could see some areas of blowing dust but will expand on that more as we get closer to another potential dust event.

Have a great weekend!

- M. Pace
ADEQ Meteorologist