Dust Risk-Based Forecast | Maricopa County

Tuesday

Stagnation: Evening stagnation

Wind: Northerly winds of 10-15 mph in the morning; 5-15 mph in the afternoon

Wednesday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Mostly light winds

Thursday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation

Wind: Northeasterly winds of 5-15 mph in the afternoon and into the evening

Friday

Stagnation: Evening stagnation

Wind: Northeasterly winds of 5-15 mph in the morning; light easterly winds in the afternoon

Saturday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Mostly light winds

Forecast Discussion:

This morning, a low pressure wave is pushing its way into Arizona from the west. One thing this system is doing is providing some morning breezes to the Valley, which are generally helping to limit PM10 (dust) and PM2.5 (smoke) levels from local activity. However, later in the afternoon, winds will increase out of the northwest, which may cause pockets of dust in dust-prone areas.

On Tuesday, the low pressure wave will have moved eastward into New Mexico. However, it will still be close enough to result in morning breezes in the Valley again. These breezes should help to limit PM10 (dust) from local activity. But pockets of dust may be briefly possible in dust-prone areas. By the afternoon, winds will weaken and dust chances will decrease.

After Tuesday, higher pressure will generally remain over Arizona through the rest of the work week. This will allow daytime temperatures to gradually increase each day. The only thing to note will be northeasterly winds Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. These winds may allow pockets of dust to be possible Thursday afternoon, but they may then limit PM10 from local activity in the evening.

Overall, the dust risk will be Low each day. Also, PM10 levels should continue to be highest in industrial areas south/southwest of the Phoenix downtown area.

Check back tomorrow for the latest!

- M. Graves
ADEQ Meteorologist